Analysis of Future Potential for NsHL Clubs (10/6/2010)

 Mark Twain popularized British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli’s remark that there are “lies, d**ned lies, and statistics,” and the new semi-regular series Buy the Numbers produced by The Society for Canadian Hockey Research (Sachermetrics) will crunch numbers on various issues related to the NsHL for the purpose of stimulating debate. Since the NsHL is so absolutely dependent on numbers, this series will attempt to ignore the who and simply present the cold hard numbers. It’s up to you to twist them as you see fit. Let the lying begin...

Everyone knows that there is a certain degree of luck when it comes to drafting and signing prospects. There was no doubt that Alexandre Daigle would be the second coming of Mario, while Alex Burrows was an afterthought who has become a very successful NHL player. There is no magic formula, but some teams just get it right. This past spring we were treated to some excellent articles on the 2005 draft by the ESN. They tackled the who of team building. Today Sachermetrics will look simply at the number of players projected to have a future impact on our NsHL clubs.

There are many draft guides, prospect sources, and yearbooks available. Publications such as Sports Forecaster and McKeen’s provide in-depth capsules on players, while others emphasize stats such The Hockey News Pool Guide. Three readily available sources provide us with actual prospect rankings that allow us to try to quantify the number of good prospects on each NsHL team. The Hockey News Yearbook provides a top 10 list that is essentially an update of their spring Future Watch issue, but without the overall top 75. Its main flaw is that all you get is a one-liner about the prospect. McKeen’s Hockey Pool Yearbook lists 6 or 7 top prospects with the most in-depth description of those players, but they do not give any indication of ranking of those prospects for that club. But what they do provide is the very handy ranking of the top 30 goaltending prospects and top 120 skaters, though you have to go hunting team-by-team to get a description of the players (how dare they make you actually look through the magazine!). Hockey’s Future provides the greatest depth of prospect listings, though their methodology is at times suspect (Kyle Turris, for example, is no longer considered a prospect because he was rushed to the NHL for 63 games in 2008-9, though he has not played an NHL game since, and is still considered by most other publications to be a top prospect for the club, yet Semyon Varlamov is listed in their top 50 prospects despite being with the club all last season, and playing the bulk of the playoffs the season before). While there may be some flaws, they provide the greatest quantity of information with the top 20 players ranked for each team, a grading system, and a list of their top 50 prospects. Since these three sources provide some manner of rankings, we are able to use this data to create a quantitative study of our NsHL franchises chances for growth in the not-too-distant future. They all have a different way of coming up with their rankings, which gives us some hard numbers to compare when assessing our NsHL franchises.

Simply listing how many “ranked” players an NsHL club may possess is admittedly flawed in itself, but if we are to agree that predicting who will be NHL players from a group of very young men is a game of chance at the best of times, then we can at least identify the teams in the best position to develop some quality NsHL players based on sheer numbers. This study does not take into account the average age of the active players on any roster, nor does it consider whether that team has sacrificed draft picks in order to be a top club. It is not meant to build up weak clubs blessed with talent, nor is it meant to ridicule teams with a shallower pool. The assumption of this article is to show which teams numerically have the best odds of producing NsHL players over the next few years. Teams on the verge of producing a couple of top line players may rank lower than a team about to produce a dozen fourth liners due to quantity. But good GMs can turn assets into better assets, so draw your own conclusions about the quality of each team’s prospects. We are just trying to illustrate the depth within each club’s system.

It is important to note three other factors to consider when assessing these numbers. The first is that this study does not take into account players who remain on prospect lists who are already playing in the NHL and are no longer considered prospects by these publications (that’s an article for another day). If a player did not appear on the rankings of any of the three sources, then he is not included here. The second point is that the players who appear in these rankings may be currently on NsHL rosters, AsHL rosters, or prospect lists. For some teams, several re-rates may be in their future to cash in on their potential riches, while other teams may have the luxury of simply activating players once they have proven themselves with a season or two of NHL experience under their belts. The final point is that especially when consulting the Hockey News and Hockey’s Future data, it is important to note that one teams top 10 (such as Edmonton) may have far superior prospects to another’s top 10 (such as Philadelphia). Please note that due to copyright considerations players and their rankings are not provided here – that is beside the point of the article anyway. The number count is accurate as of the conclusion of the entry draft. Trades since then that had not been updated as of October 2nd on the official NsHL site are not included in these numbers.
 

	Top 120 Skaters	Top 30 Goalies	Top 10 By Team	#1 for Club	Top 20 By Team	#1 for Club	Top 50 Prospects
	8	0	18	2	28	3	4
	2	2	9	1	18	0	0
	2	2	10	0	14	2	2
	4	1	8	0	27	0	1
	2	1	14	2	31	2	3
	9	2	27	2	33	3	2
	3	0	4	1	7	2	2
	5	0	9	1	17	0	1
	4	0	9	1	15	0	2
	2	2	11	1	19	0	2
	4	0	9	2	19	1	1
	2	0	7	0	12	1	1
	4	2	10	1	15	2	2
	5	0	13	0	28	1	1
	5	1	14	1	27	0	0
	3	0	4	0	15	1	2
	7	1	9	0	23	1	4
	2	1	8	0	14	0	0
	4	2	8	2	14	2	1
	2	0	6	0	11	0	0
	4	0	12	1	16	2	2
	6	1	12	1	24	1	2
	7	2	14	3	17	0	1
	4	1	6	2	16	1	1
	0	0	4	0	13	0	0
	5	3	7	3	21	3	6
	7	0	10	1	24	1	4
	4	2	11	0	24	0	2
	1	1	5	0	13	0	0
	2	1	8	0	17	0	0
UFA	1	2	3	0	29	0	0

 

The easiest conclusion to draw from this data may be that Carolina has the best chance of producing NsHL talent in the next several years. But can we ignore the fact that San Jose has 6 players on the top 50 list produced by Hockey’s Future, or that Nashville, Tampa, and Anaheim have 4 each. Tampa does not even crack the top 5 (see chart below) in terms of quantity. So it is also a question of quantity or quality. Time will tell which groups of prospects ends up being the most valuable – and that will be even be nearly impossible to assess due to trades, retirements, and signings, but regardless of which rating service you consult, it would seem that the Hurricanes are dominating in terms of quantity. We’ll just have to see who the league champions are five to ten years from now.

 

Top 5 teams according to each publication

 

McKeen's	THN	Hockey's Future
#1 Carolina (9 S, 2 G) 11	#1 Carolina 27 (2 #1s)	#1 Carolina 33 (3 #1s)
#2 Phoenix (7 S, 2 G) 9	#2 Anaheim 18 (2 #1s)	#2 Calgary 31 (2 #1s)
#3 Anaheim (8 S) 8	#3 Phoenix 14 (3 #1s)	#3 Anaheim 28 (3 #1s)
#4 Nashville (7 S, 1 G) 8	#4 Calgary 14 (2 #1s)	#4 Los Angeles 28 (1 #1)
#5 San Jose (5 S, 3 G) 8	#5 Minnesota 14 (1 #1)	#5 Buffalo 27 (0 #1s) #5 Minnesota 27 (0 #1s)

 

 

Bottom 5 teams according to each publication

 

McKeen's	THN	Hockey's Future
#30 St. Louis 0	#29 (tie) St. Louis 4	#30 Chicago 7 (2 #1s)
#27 (tie) Edmonton (2 S) 2	#29 Montreal 4	#29 NY Rangers 11
#27 NY Rangers (2 S) 2	#28 Chicago 4 (1 #1)	#28 Edmonton 12 (1 #1)
#27 Vancouver (1 S, 1 G) 2	#27 Vancouver 5	#27 St. Louis 13
Calgary, Chicago, Montreal, New Jersey and Washington tied with 3	#26 NY Rangers 6	#26 New Jersey 14

 

There are, of course, some interesting anomalies in all of these rankings. For example, while San Jose has only 7 players ranked in the top 10 prospects by THN, 3 of them are considered their team’s top prospect, and the other 4 are all ranked as the second best prospect on their team. This goes to show that quantity may not be the best predictor of future success, but it does paint a picture of the depth of some team’s prospects.

What also stands out is that the teams with the smallest number of top prospects are the clubs that have had great success in recent years. The NY Rangers, for example, have invested their draft picks and prospects into winning championships and at some point in the not-too-distant future will have to begin a rebuilding phase. This stands to reason. Yes, not all the teams with low rankings have enjoyed playoff success, but in most cases they have made that effort to get there. The teams with a wealth of talent are generally the teams that have struggled in the standings. The reason some of the clubs with the worst won-loss records may only have middling prospect lists is because with such high draft picks their top prospects have made the jump to the pro ranks very quickly, creating the illusion of a shallower pool.

In other words, it is not shocking that Carolina and Calgary sit atop the lists because they have had a few lean years (last season notwithstanding for Calgary), while perennial contenders such as the Canucks and Rangers sit with relatively barren shelves. The teams that stand out on the list are clubs like Anaheim, Buffalo, and Los Angeles, because they have been successful but still manage to keep their systems well stocked. They are clubs that appear to have managed to make the necessary moves to remain competitive, while still keeping an eye to the future. The old adage of sell high and buy low seems to have worked for those clubs.

There is a wealth of talent playing outside of the NsHL at the moment, and every team has a share. When you are investigating trades, remember to do your homework and make sure that you are asking for those players who think will be the quality buried amongst the quantity. Many of the teams with the greatest number of ranked prospects are teams that are working their way out of hard times, while those with the fewest are clubs that have traded future opportunities for the chance at immediate success. As the pendulum swings from reaping the rewards to rebuilding, and back again, deals are to be had. Go forth and make those moves that make your club stronger. Buy low and sell high. The real question is: Do you buy the numbers?

- Archimedes Newton for the Society for Canadian Hockey Research (Sachermetrics)