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A Production of The Society for Canadian Hockey Research

For most teams the season is long over and critical decisions are being mulled over as they look toward the future. Even the teams that are in the middle of a deep playoff push must have at least one eye on what the offseason may bring. In the spirit of looking ahead, here is a look at where teams are in terms of replacing talent as they move forward. Several teams are currently quite young and can afford to be patient, while others need an infusion of young talent soon. Some clubs have players waiting in the wings; some are a few years away. Unfortunately for some of those teams, their current and future needs may not match where their prospect pool is currently sitting. The purpose of this opening article is simply to look at where The Hockey News (THN) and Hockey Futures (HF) may suggest where teams are at in terms of prospect development. These numbers do not take into account the actual quality of the prospects, other than noting where players are considered in the top 75 prospects according to THN or the top 50 according to HF. Keep in mind that the two sources view prospects differently. Some players appeared on one list or the other, some on both depending on how much actual pro experience they have.

It is entirely possible that many of these teams have recently activated a number of young players, such as the Sharks, and their future may not look as bright as it actually is, while other teams’ prospect lists may reflect the totality of their young players because they have a veteran roster, such as Anaheim or the Rangers, who had the oldest rosters (30.5 years old on average) at the conclusion of the regular season. We will simply look at what the numbers currently suggest for the future. In their Future Watch issue THN listed the top 10 prospects for each team. Generally not all prospects have an impact on the future health of their teams, so the numbers listed in brackets are players that were listed in the top 5 for their teams. HF lists 20 players per club, but again the number in brackets are the players who represent the top 5 for their respective teams. This is certainly not an exact science, as the top 5 prospects for the NHL Philadelphia Flyers would have a hard time even cracking the top 10 for the NHL`s Edmonton Oilers, but top prospects in any organization tend to get the lion`s share of opportunities in that organization, and on that basis it can be argued that they are still likely to be NsHL contributors in the not-too-distant future. Since some players appear on one list or the other, the total players listed in the final column indicate the actual number of players represented in each team`s data. One other note - HF did not do a proper update on Calgary or Florida, so their lists were based on players removed via trade or “graduation,” which produced a few anomalies, such as Drew Shore (NsHL’s NJ) still being listed as the 11^th best Panther while landing on their top 50 list at #44. We have not adjusted for these anomalies, but have included these players simply as ranked.

If future success is purely based on quantity, then the Carolina Hurricanes continue to set the gold standard for their prospect pool. With 38 top 20 prospects they boast 8 more prospects according to HF than their next closest rival, the Toronto Maple Leafs. Even more significant is their 27 top 10 prospects according to THN, which eclipses the Los Angeles Kings’ 16 by 11 players. Not only does Carolina have the quantity, they also appear to have quality, as they list 14 top 5 players according to HF’ which is more than the total rates players listed by Washington (13), Detroit (13), Atlanta (12), New Jersey (12), the Islanders (12), the Rangers (10), or Chicago (7)! According to THN their 16 players listed in the top 5 for each team surpasses every team`s total number of players, with the exception of Los Angeles, whose 16 top-10 players match Carolina`s 16 top-5.

But we all know not all of these players will turn out to be high quality NsHLers, and even if they do, not all of them will be able to find playing time in Carolina. The bottom line is that Carolina by sheer numbers and generally strong quality must be considered among the very top teams going forward. However, there are several other contenders based on the number of top-end players identified by our two sources. When we look at the number of top 75 players identified by THN, the Anaheim Ducks hold the rights to just under 10% of all the players with a whopping 7 players! Sure, at number 13 Nazem Kadri may be the highest rated of these 7 players, but the quality cannot be denied. Seven other teams boast 4 players each from this list, which surprisingly does not include Carolina. Detroit, Nashville, the Islanders, Ottawa, Philadelphia, San Jose, and Toronto are the teams. Most notable on this list are the Islanders, who were identified as a have-not team in terms of quantity according to HF, yet here they sit with a very strong nucleus to build around. Their group includes a goalie, two defensemen, and a forward, and of these players two are in the top 20 – Cody Hodgson (16) and Brandon Gormley (12). While quantity is nice, it would not be fair to say that the Islanders are in any particular trouble long-term, though it may be a good idea for that organization to add some quantity to hedge their bets.

When we switch sources and look at the THN top 50 we find two NsHL clubs that have not been mentioned thus far boasting five players each from this list. The Florida Panthers and Philadelphia Flyers are in great shape according to that publication, especially when Florida has two of the top five players in Jonathan Bernier (3) and Oliver Ekman-Larsson (4), and Philadelphia has four players in the top 25, including David Rundblad at number 5!

At the other end of the spectrum are teams that have holes to fill. Montreal and St. Louis are the only teams that do not have any prospects on THN`s top 75, and are two of the 8 teams that do not have players listed on the HF top 50 list. While the Blues and Canadiens enjoyed strong seasons and had strong showings in the playoffs, this does suggest that they may not be too far from a downward cycle as their current rosters age. The other clubs without HF top-50 players are Calgary, Columbus, Detroit, Phoenix, Vancouver, and Washington. Calgary and Washington each only have 1 player listed on the THN list. The Capitals have a relatively small number of prospects compared to other clubs, but Calgary has the fifth largest list according to HF, so as long as a few gems emerge from their lesser-considered players they should be in very good shape. Detroit`s inclusion on this list of have-nots is offset by their four players listed in the top 75 according to THN, so while they do not have a particularly large list, there is clearly some quality there. The same can be said for Columbus, who has three players included on the THN list, including Tim Erixon, who they rate as the 15^th best prospect while HF left him off their list. Vancouver also looks okay with two players listed by HF, though they need those players to live up their potential given their relatively small pool to work with. Phoenix, like Calgary, is probably one of the teams on this list in pretty good shape. Their relatively large group of players, two players on the HF list, and seven top-5 players on the THN roster ratings and 5 players on the top-5 HF roster rankings make it hard to call them a team that is suffering, especially considering these numbers actually combine for 9 different players due to different rankings by the two organizations.

The bottom line is that the numbers tell us only part of the story. Yes, Carolina has a massive pool to work from, and the Blackhawks have the smallest pool (though it must be noted that two of their players are listed in the top 35 on THN). This does not guarantee anything for the future because there is no predicting what any club may do with these assets. It does, however, give us some indication as to where they could be in five years if they have a plan and stick to it. It also helps us to identify which teams need to make the most of their draft picks and which can be a bit more cavalier on draft day. Of course, the draft can be such a crap shoot that it often takes years to determine which teams took those unexpected risks. In our next two articles we will be actually ranking the future health of the teams in each conference by considering not only their prospect lists, but also the age of their rosters and their draft pick situations.