Buythenumber$ archive Eastern Conference Prospect Health Rankings (6/6/2011) Western Conference Prospect Health Rankings (5/27/2011) Crystal Ball Gazing (5/17/2011) The Road To The Playoffs (2/8/2011) Hoarders: Who Are You Kidding? (1/13/2011) UFA: Unlimited Funds Available (12/1/2010) First Three Flights of Fancy (11/17/2010) |
Buythenumber$ A Production of The Society for Canadian Hockey Research
Eastern Conference Prospect Health Rankings (6/6/2011)
It is hard to say whether it reflects the personality of the Eastern Conference general managers, or if it that there has been more of a dog fight to make the playoffs in the East over the past couple of years, but there is a much wider gap in the quality of prospect lists from top to bottom. The Western Conference may have had all the 100 point teams, but it was a 9 team race to the playoffs. In the East 11 or 12 teams pounded away at each other and several teams did not learn their fate until the last week of the season. What this has meant is that while a few teams have been hoarding prospects there are several clubs who could be falling on very lean times in a few years without major moves or huge free agency pickups. Carolina and Philadelphia could certainly rival the top couple of teams in the West in terms of prospect health, but the Rangers, Capitals, and Canadiens have certainly sacrificed their future prospects in favour of being competitive now. While all three teams are very healthy at the moment with some good young players supporting their veteran cast, they will have to add to their prospect lists or there could be some very lean years in the not-too-distant future. The middle group of teams all have some very good strength areas, but in many cases they either have top end prospects with lesser depth, or good depth without that sexy group of top end players that will wow you. For each team there is a grid that includes the number of players ranked by THN and Hockey Futures combined, with players ranked in their top 75 and top 50 respectively in brackets. The number of players on these lists who are already activated are noted. Then a list of players who are considered “recent grads” by HF are listed to show prospects who are early in their NHL careers but did not receive a rating from THN or HF. This illustrates further depth on several teams. Finally, a list of draft picks for this year’s draft is provided. The grid is followed by a list of the top 4 prospects, a riser, a faller, the strengths of the team’s prospect pool, where they need improvement, how this year’s draft may help to address their needs, and finally a brief summary of where the team is at and where it may be headed long term. The player chosen as a riser is a player who was considered to have made more progress than expected this past season, while the fallers are players who did not have as good a season as expected. The risers may have already been considered a top prospect in the organization, or they may be an unexpected bonus from a late round pick. The fallers are often still very good prospects for their organization, but their development stalled or a flaw revealed itself that pushes their timeline back. #1 Carolina Hurricanes
Top 4 Prospects: Tyler Seguin C, Alex Pietrangelo D, Evander Kane LW, Robin Lehner G Riser: Teemu Pulkkinen RW – boom or bust player staying healthy and playing well averaging point a game in SM-Liiga. Faller: Zach Hamill C – looks overmatched at times at the AHL and NHL level. Strengths: Fantastic depth – there are at least 5 rated prospects at every position, several star-calibre players in the system. Needs: To find a way to get these players activated. This year’s draft: With two firsts (including 7th overall at worst), three seconds, and a third rounder the prospect pool will become even more formidable. Current situation: Mr. Jones has been amassing a huge number of prospects, and after activating a few last season, several more are ready to go. They were much more competitive this year, and have enough talent flowing in to push hard for a playoff spot next season. If the prospects are managed properly, this team should be a powerhouse in the not too distant future. Veterans Lilja and Brashear are likely to depart and some veteran journeymen may get pushed into the minors to make room, meaning the farm team may be stronger this coming season as well. #2 Philadelphia Flyers
Top 4 Prospects: Chris Kreider C, David Rundblad D, Jared Cowen D, Dylan McIlrath D Riser: Martin Marincin D – 2nd rounder in 2010 putting it all together and had excellent WHL season. Faller: Akim Aliu RW – once thought to be a budding power forward but now looks like a bottom six energy player at best. Strengths: Fantastic depth at defence especially when considering young players already activated, and good depth at center, right wing, and in goal. Needs: More prospects at left wing and a top-end winger on either side. This year’s draft: With a first rounder and three second rounders there is lots of opportunity to improve upon their depth. Current situation: This was a once very good team that took a bit of a step back this past season, but still managed to work its way into the playoffs. Mr. Dagnese’s team is blessed with five excellent prospects on the blueline (add Travis Hamonic to the riser and three listed as the top 4) and a blue chipper down the middle (Kreider). The Flyers’ average age is 29 years old, but 39 year old Armstrong and 37 year old Conroy will depart. There are already some very solid youngsters such as Lucic and Vlasic in the line-up, so the Flyers are in great shape for the foreseeable future. #3 Toronto Maple Leafs
Top 4 Prospects: Erik Gudbranson D, Sergei Bobrovsky G, John Moore D, Viatcheslav Voynov D Riser: Ryan McDonagh D – highly ranked prospect made a rapid transition from college to pro to the NHL in a matter of months. Faller: Christian Hanson RW/C – much-hyped college free agent starting to look like little more than a depth player. Strengths: Fantastic crop of defensemen and very good goaltending, good depth at center. Needs: They are suddenly thin on the wings after several activations in the past couple of years. This year’s draft: Two first rounders, including one in the top 8, and a third rounder should help to shore up some of the weakness areas. Current situation: At an average age of 27.6 years old only 7 teams were younger in the NsHL last year. The Leafs finally made their return to the playoffs and look to stay there for a while with a good set of young wingers and a solid core of young defensemen. The Leafs have great defensive prospects to push their current blue line group, but most of their other prospects are a couple of years away from contributing, so Mr. Graber will have to get lots of mileage from their current roster. This is a team that may need to add a free agent or two to bridge the gap, but they may not have the room with a couple of key restricted free agents due for a raise. #4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Top 4 Prospects: Brendan Smith D, Joey Hishon C, Alex Chiasson RW, Blake Geoffrion LW Riser: Michael Grabner LW – there was no doubt that the talent was there, but many were surprised by his 34 goal NHL season. Faller: Ondrej Roman LW – continues to mainly play a perimeter game. Strengths: Some high quality prospects and good quantity of options at center, left wing, and defense. Needs: Better options in goal and more depth on the right wing. This year’s draft: A high first rounder (likely 4th overall) and two second rounders should help to enhance an already solid group of prospects. Current Situation: This is one of the older teams at an average age of 29.6 years old, but four players in their mid 30s are set to depart, including starting goalie Nikolai Khabibulin. Tampa will need to solve their goaltending problems through a trade or a free agent move. They have a couple of players such as Grabner who are ready to step up, but most of their top prospects are a couple of years away. Long term this team is in very good shape, but Mr. Costello² [yes, I am aware that little 2 is mathematically incorrect, but I can’t help myself] will need to make some short term moves or else the next year or so will continue to be lean in the standings. #5 Florida Panthers
Top 4 Prospects: Charlie Coyle RW, Jake Allen G, Oliver Ekman-Larsson D, Jonathan Bernier G Riser: Tyler Toffoli C/RW – his skating is catching up with his other excellent offensive talents. Faller: Nicolas Deschamps C – struggling to score even at the AHL level. Strengths: Several high-end prospects in goal, up front, and on the blue line. Needs: Greater depth, especially at defence and right wing, and more quantity of prospects to create internal competition. This year’s draft: A first rounder (likely 12th), a second, and two third rounders should help to build up their depth and possibly add another high-end player. Current situation: This team has an average age of 30.3 years, the departure of goalies Boucher and Conklin creates room for at least one of Josh Harding, Jonathan Bernier, or Mike Smith, and skaters Jason Blake and Sean O’Donnell leaving will create some opportunities for some performers from the Jacksonville club that is currently in a dogfight for the AsHL championship. Florida was close to making the playoffs this past season, but most of the cavalry is a couple of years away. There are some decent role players waiting to fill in roster positions so Mr. McComish’s club should be able to remain competitive and fight again for a playoff spot. #6 Buffalo Sabres
Top 4 Prospects: Vladimir Tarasenko RW, Philip Larsen D, Jan Mursak LW, Marcus Kruger C Riser: Tom Kuhnhackl RW – erased all concerns about being able to compete effectively in North America with excellent OHL season. Faller: Yuri Alexandrov D – former second rounder has had trouble adapting to the AHL game. Strengths: Good depth at all skating positions. Needs: Further depth in goal and some more top-side talent to complement Tarasenko. This year’s draft: A pick in each of the first three rounds should help to improve their depth. Their willingness to take a riskier pick in the first round paid off last year, so perhaps they’ll unearth another gem this year. Current situation: It’s an uncomfortable feeling for the other clubs to see a team in the NsHL finals near the top of this list. Mr. Gorbet’s Sabres are one of the older clubs in the league at an average age of 30.4 years, but the impending departure of role players like Darche, Schneider, Clarke and Yelle should be easily overcome. They are in great shape right now and will have the prospects when they really need them in the next year or two. #7 New York Islanders
Top 4 Prospects: Brandon Gormley D, Cody Hodgson C, Jeff Petry D, Braden Holtby G Riser: Maxime Sauve LW/C – small but tenacious winger was on pace for a 31 goal season in the AHL before wrist problems. Faller: Colton Gillies LW – good energy player, but looks less and less likely to live up to the power forward potential that made him a first round pick. Strengths: Top end talent in key positions of center, defence, and goal. Needs: Greater depth as there are few support players coming along or creating internal competition. This year’s draft: With a top-10 first rounder (likely 9th) and second round pick they can add a couple of very good players, but they need to get a lot out of their other picks to compensate for the lack of a third rounder. Current situation: Despite missing the playoffs Mr. Hessel’s Islanders had a respectable season and have reason for optimism. While they are an older club, two of their oldest players, Paul Kariya and Fredrik Modin are UFAs. The Islanders already have budding superstar John Tavares in their lineup and some good youngsters who will be ready in a year or two. The margin for error is a bit tighter with a smaller quantity of prospects, but if most of them live up to their potential this club will be a strong one sooner than later. #8 Ottawa Senators
Top 4 Prospects: Ryan Wilson D, Calle Jarnkrok C, Cam Fowler D, Jonathan Blum D Riser: Justin Faulk D – second rounder in 2010 is looking like a steal as he has put it all together at the college level. Faller: Nikita Filatov LW – should be easily on the top 4 list for this team, but he just can’t seem to get it done consistently at the AHL or NHL level. Strengths: Fabulous crop of young blueliners, fairly good depth at center. Needs: At least one legitimate right wing prospect, additional goaltending and left wing depth. This year’s draft: Jackpot! Three picks in the first round (around 10th, and two roughly in the 20s), a second rounder, and three third rounders should help them to fill in a lot of their needs and should leap-frog them past the Islanders on this list. Current situation: Filatov makes this groups of prospects extremely hard to project. He should be the crown jewel, but has had a hard time putting it all together. Luckily Mr. Hickerson’s Sens have more going for them. They are one of the youngest clubs with an average age of 25. 5 years old, there are no departing UFAs as they were all moved to improve their prospect depth, and there are few RFAs. This year is probably two years away from being a playoff team, but they are in very good shape long-term. #9 Boston Bruins
Top 4 Prospects: Mikael Boedker LW, Jack Campbell G, Jordan Caron RW, Dustin Jeffrey C Riser: Dana Tyrell C – speedster is overcoming injury problems nicely. Faller: Cade Fairchild D – has been weak on his defensive assignments. Strengths: Two dynamic wingers coming along, good depth at center, and a potential franchise goalie. Needs: Better defensive prospects, more depth on the wings in particular. This year’s draft: With just a second, third, and fourth round pick it will be critical to use these picks wisely or make a move to add some more opportunities to re-stock their prospect pool. Current situation: After nearly a year of being mainly on auto-pilot, the Bruins kicked things into high gear under the direction of Mr. Wolf. He moved out some young players to try to get his club into the playoffs, only to fall to the Rangers in the first round. In spite of this, the Bruins remain a young team (average age of 27.3 years) with Setoguchi, Giroux, Anisimov, and Bergeron representing a young dynamic offensive core who are all currently 25 years old or younger. Boston has some good prospect depth to complement these players moving forward. Boston should continue to be in the mix for the playoffs, and are a young team on the rise. #10 Atlantapeg
Top 4 Prospects: Ryan Ellis D, Calvin Pickard G, Taylor Doherty D, David Savard D Riser: Drew Schiestel D – was having a very strong AHL season before being slowed by injuries. Faller: Brent Regner D – smallish defenseman was expected to be a strong offensive player in AHL this past season, but struggled to get consistent ice time. Strengths: Very strong blueline prospects and a potential number one goalie. Needs: Forwards. They have only two rated forwards in their prospect pool. This year’s draft: Picking around 11th overall should help, but with just a third, a fifth, and two sevenths after that they will need to make every pick count. Current situation: It was quite shocking to see Mr. Cherniwchan trade prospect Jarred Tinordi less than a year after he moved two second rounders and prospect James Wright to reacquire his first rounder to get him, but when you have OHL player of the year Ryan Ellis in your talent pool it is understandable when a playoff slot is at stake. Unfortunately it did not payoff and Atlanta (Winnipeg?) is down a couple of very good prospects. This was an older club with an average age of 29.9 years old, but with the ancient Mark Recchi, along with Colin White, Fernandez and Pock likely to move on, they instantly get younger. Atlanta has a few good young players ready to step in this year or next, so this club should be in fairly good shape moving forward. #11 Pittsburgh Penguins
Top 4 Prospects: Taylor Hall LW, Nick Leddy D, Greg Nemisz C, Philip Samuelsson D Riser: Kyle Clifford LW – surprised many by not only making the NHL so quickly, but sticking and being effective the entire season. Faller: Nicola Riopel G – former outstanding QMJHL goalie has struggled in the AHL so far. Strengths: Uh... Taylor Hall, and decent depth on LW and the blue line, especially with Victor Hedman already producing for their NsHL club. Needs: Depth at center, right wing, and in net. This year’s draft: Lots of opportunity to significantly upgrade their prospect pool with three first and two second rounders, though they do not have third rounder, but they do have five more picks in the later rounds. Current situation: Mr. Erb’s Penguins are going through some growing pains with youngsters like Hedman already in their lineup, which does adversely affect their current prospect ratings. The Pens didn’t really have any young game breakers in their line-up this past year, but that will change when Taylor Hall makes the jump as expected next year. The Pens were middle of the pack in terms of age at 28 years old on average, but with Chris Mason and Michael Nylander likely to depart they are likely to get younger. The Pens may look forward to Kyle Clifford joining the club in an energy role, and even young blue liner Nick Leddy could make the jump. The Pens should be better soon. #12 New York Rangers
Top 4 Prospects: Evgeny Kuznetsov C, Jordan Schroeder C/RW, Jason Zucker LW, Michael Stone D Riser: Brett Flemming D – sure he played on one of the best teams, but he also posted one of the best +/- ratings in the OHL. Faller: Nick Petersen RW – went from 10th to unranked on NHL Penguins rankings due to weak skating, though he did put up very good scoring numbers in the ECHL. Strengths: A couple of very good offensive prospects. Needs: Pretty much everything else. Years of picking low and trades to go for it now has caught up with the Rangers. The time is now for a re-stocking of the prospect pool because they have one of the oldest rosters in the league. This year’s draft: Only one pick in the first three rounds, though it will be a late first rounder. They will need to make their 4th, two 5ths and 7th rounder good ones to restock, or make a move for additional picks or prospects. Current situation: It is not shocking that a team that won it all a season ago had one of the oldest rosters at 30.5 years old Mr. Dechelis will likely be saying goodbye to Guite, Sople, Briere, L. Wilson, and Bertuzzi in the off-season, which will force some youth or free agent signings. The Rangers mostly have depth or role players ready to go while their top prospects are at least a year away. The Rangers will take a bit of a step back and will need to make the most of their picks this year as they already have moved their 2012 first rounder. For the time being the Rangers are fairly healthy, but their long term projections are not all that rosy at the moment. #13 New Jersey Devils
Top 4 Prospects: Carter Ashton RW, Drew Shore C, Ian Cole D, Chris Summers D Riser: Jason Garrison D – had a very steady year for the NHL Panthers. Faller: Chet Pickard G – Former first rounder had a horrible year in the ECHL and AHL. Strengths: A couple of very good forward prospects and a bit of depth on the blueline and in net if Pickard can rebound. Needs: A bit of everything, especially wingers. This year’s draft: The Devils do not pick until the fifth round, which does not bode well for this franchise. They definitely need to make a move or two to try to rebuild their depth very soon. Current situation: The Devils have maintained an older club at 30.4 years old on average while trying to be playoff contenders, but Mr. Guzman’s team has paid the price in terms of future potential for success. The club has two ancient but still effective goalies set to walk with Brodeur and Roloson set to be UFAs, but also F. Kaberle, Witt, Salvador, and Willsie could depart. The Devils have few youngsters ready to step in, though some good ones will be ready in a couple of years. Without deals or free agency moves it could get bad before it gets better. #14 Washington Capitals
Top 4 Prospects: Brian Dumoulin D, Ryan Spooner C, Colby Cohen D, Eric Gelinas D Riser: Jerry D’Amigo RW – It was a weird year as he came out of college, played half a season in the AHL, where he was considered effective but the concern was he had lost his scoring touch, so he goes to the OHL and scores 12 goals in 21 games. Scoring touch regained... Not bad for a 6th round pick. Faller: Ivan Vishnevskiy D – it’s starting to look like there is a reason that he been traded in the NHL twice in less than a year despite only playing 5 NHL games. Strengths: Good depth on the blueline, and a few solid forwards. Needs: Depth throughout the system as years of chasing the big prize has left all areas a bit thin. This year’s draft: With just a second and third rounder in the first three rounds, they will struggle not have a huge impact on adding to their prospect pool, although their second rounder is the 32nd pick overall. Current situation: There aren’t many players set to step in this year or next, but Mr. Cawker probably isn’t worried with youngsters Stamkos, Benn, Stastny, and Staal all under 25 years old and making big contributions. For their regular season success the Caps have paid a bit of a price, but they are in good shape overall for the next several seasons. They will see Foote and Weight retire, and Denis and Grier are likely UFA departures, so this older club (29.6 years old) should get a bit younger by default. There aren’t a lot of players ready to step in, but with their current core youngster the Caps do have some time to restock. #15 Montreal Canadiens
Top 4 Prospects: P.K. Subban D, Matt Bartkowski D, Matt Donovan D, Mark Olver C Riser: David Descharnais C – little guy is proving he can handle the NHL and contribute offensively. Faller: Mathieu Carle D – had a healthy year, but is playing catch-up after a couple of years of being constantly injured. Strengths: Good depth on the blue line. Needs: More depth at all other positions, and some top-end talent up front. This year’s draft: With just a third, fourth, and fifth round pick the rebuilding of the prospect pool may have to wait another season. Current situation: Montreal’s Mr. Goetzinger has been very aggressive over the past few seasons at the trade deadline which has depleted their prospect list considerably. The latest casualty was Cam Fowler, who with P.K. Subban would have made an outstanding tandem in a year or two. The Habs are not a terribly old squad (29.1 years old on average) and will get a bit younger with the departure of Ryder, Bayda, R. Smyth, and W. Primeau. They have a good young core with Mikko Koivu, Plekanec, Kane, and Subban which leaves them healthy for a few years, but things could be very bleak in 3 to 5 years if some attention is not paid to rebuilding their prospect list. - Aristotle Newton of BuytheNumber$ for ESN and Sachermetrics
|
|