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A Production of The Society for Canadian Hockey Research

It has taken eleven days since the first team (Dallas) hit the half way point in the season. Now that Nashville, Phoenix, Minnesota, and the NY Rangers have made it we can attempt compare apples to apples, and figure out which ones are wormy. While it may be too soon for any club to completely give up on the playoffs a few teams are already showing signs of doing so. Many teams likely remain on the fence trying to figure out if they will be buyers or sellers, and may have to wait until the deadline to make that call. The numbers that follow may help to guide your decisions. Due to the natural imbalance in the schedule, all teams will be compared based on their statistics when they hit the 41 game mark. In order to do that, we must first look at what it takes to make the playoffs in this league.

Over the first seven years of this league’s history, the average number of points earned by a Eastern Conference playoff team has been 96.48, with a whopping average of 102.25 last year. The top eight teams in the West have averaged 94.64 points, with 99.13 being the highest average. It was also from last season, which reflects the elimination of outright ties and the move to shootouts with the new sim. In short, the number of 3 point games has increased somewhat.

The team with the lowest point total to ever make the playoffs was the 2007-8 Dallas Stars with just 79 points. They are the only team to make the playoffs without achieving at least a .500 winning percentage. The average number of points needed to make the playoffs in the West is 84.42 points, with 87 being the highest total – which happened in 2004-5 (Detroit), 2005-6 (Nashville), and 2009-10 (Anaheim – by just one point!). In the East the average number of points necessary has been 87.17, with 92 being the highest total in 2004-5 (Philadelphia) and 2009-10 (Atlanta). In the east the 8^th place teams average a margin of 4.71 points over the 9^th place team, a number which is inflated by Philly’s 14 pt margin over Pittsburgh in 2004-5 and Montreal’s 11 point margin over Philadelphia in 2006-7. The margin in the West is a miniscule 2.14 points.

8^th Place Teams’ Point Totals and Margin over the 9^th Place Team by Season

 * 2005-6 Carolina finished in 9^th with 84 points; 2005-6 Phoenix finished in 9^th with 84 pts; 2007-8 Nashville finished in 9^th with 79 pts; 2008-9 Dallas finished in 9^th with 82 pts

Now don’t be discouraged if making the playoffs is not good enough. If you plan on being league champion, finishing first is not a requirement... and often works against you. The 2008-9 New York Rangers are the only league champions to ever to also finish first in their conference. So making the playoffs gives all 16 teams a legitimate shot, if history is to be our guide. In fact, with three seventh place teams winning the cup and only two 100-point clubs as champions, finishing in the bottom half of the pack has been a better predictor of who will win it all. In case you’re wondering, the average NsHL champ had merely a 94 point season.

League Champions and their Regular Season Standings

But let’s get back to making the playoffs. When we look at both conferences combined prior to the updated scoring system, the average number of points required regardless of conference was 85.5. Last season it was 89.5 points. This suggests an increase of 4 points required to make the playoffs now that ties have been eliminated as a possibility. It seems reasonable to set the minimum benchmark for making the playoffs at 89 points. While this cannot be defended statistically due to the small sample size from last season, it seems like a reasonable number.

Western Conference Standings When Comparing Teams at their 41^st Game

In the West the trend of the eighth place team being below the league average necessary to make the playoffs appears to be continuing. Calgary and Chicago are both on pace for 88 points, but if the teams were to duplicate their first halves, one of these two teams would make the playoffs. The top 7 teams in the division could almost certainly get away with simply playing .500 hockey for the second half and make the playoffs as long as no more than two of the next group of teams get extremely hot down the stretch. Colorado, Edmonton and Nashville remain in the mix, as a moderate improvement in the second half could vault them into the 8^th spot or better. San Jose, Phoenix and Columbus need to consider whether or not they could match the excellence of Dallas, Detroit or Minnesota in the second half to have a shot. Think deeply gentlemen – you know what your chances are. But Dallas illustrates the need to look beyond the standings each day. When they hit 41 games they were at the top of the conference, and were playing well, but they were not truly the top dog. Most of the little dogs would gladly trade places with them, but it illustrates the point just the same. 

Eastern Conference Standings When Comparing Teams at their 41^st Game

The East is also showing a trend to a bit lower numbers for the 8^th place team, but the thing to keep in mind in both conferences is that as things tighten up in the playoff races we can safely assume that more games will go to overtime, resulting in a moderate increase in three point games. The top five teams in the tighter East can most likely get away with a .500 second half, but there is a very large bunch of teams, from New Jersey down to Florida who will likely need to improve their play, not just maintain it. Tampa, Carolina and Ottawa would have to catch lightning in a bottle to even stand a chance. You know what to do.

Since many of these teams have long passed the 41 game mark, we can take a quick peek at which clubs are getting it done, and which need to step things up a notch. The hot teams are ones that are surpassing the second-half required pace to hit 89 points, while the cold teams are not. Teams not listed have not played enough additional games to say so far.

Hot:  Dallas, Vancouver, Anaheim, Calgary, Chicago, Colorado, Washington, Buffalo, New Jersey, Boston, Carolina, St. Louis, Columbus, Philadelphia

Cold: Atlanta, NY Islanders, Tampa, Edmonton, Toronto

So far most teams are off to the necessary start, which means that the number of teams dropping out long before the trade deadline should be quite slim. This suggests that there will be fewer deals in the short term, and unless some clear separation gets established over the next few weeks it could be a frantic deadline day rush in which much is discussed but little is accomplished. The numbers at this point tell us this is so. Do you buy the numbers?