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Western Conference Prospect Health Rankings (5/27/2011)
The Western Conference boasts several teams that have set themselves up for a good deal of success in the not too distant future. An argument could certainly be made to include Anaheim, Nashville, San Jose, and Los Angeles in the top 5 prospect groups in the entire league. When looking at what they have right now, we are confident that these rankings accurately reflect the potential impact of their prospects. Nashville went to great lengths to build up their prospects this season, but they are taking a tremendous risk by moving all of their 2011 draft picks to do so. While this should accelerate their growth, we would caution against this practice, as the Chicago Blackhawks can attest after moving all their picks in 2009. But the Predators are in a far better position to make such a move than Chicago was after extenuating circumstances forced the Blackhawks to take these extraordinary measures two years ago. A couple of excellent choices in last year’s draft kept Chicago out of the basement of the rankings, but they are certainly one of the teams that needs to bolster their prospect pool. The St. Louis Blues take the dubious distinction because of a lack of high end talent and fairly small group of players to draw on. This is not overly surprising as they are team on the rise that has moved picks for current success, but this will catch up to them in the next couple of years if they do not begin to rebuild their system. The overall health of the teams ranked 5th through 12th is quite good, and the rankings should spark some good debate depending on how various prospects are regarded. As you work your way down the list, the question to ask yourself is “Would I trade that set of prospects for the group above.” Obviously, not all prospects are listed here, but if you wade through the league’s prospects page and look at the youngest of the active players in the AsHL and NsHL we are fairly confident that you may tweak the list, but would not make huge changes. Having said that, rankings such as this are naturally up for debate, so let the ripping of this list begin! For each team there is a grid that includes the number of players ranked by THN and Hockey Futures combined, with players ranked in their top 75 and top 50 respectively in brackets. The number of players on these lists who are already activated are noted. Then a list of players who are considered “recent grads” by HF are listed to show prospects who are early in their NHL careers but did not receive a rating from THN or HF. This illustrates further depth on several teams. Finally, a list of draft picks for this year’s draft is provided. The grid is followed by a list of the top 4 prospects, a riser, a faller, the strengths of the team’s prospect pool, where they need improvement, how this year’s draft may help to address their needs, and finally a brief summary of where the team is at and where it may be headed long term. The player chosen as a riser is a player who was considered to have made more progress than expected this past season, while the fallers are players who did not have as good a season as expected. The risers may have already been considered a top prospect in the organization, or they may be an unexpected bonus from a late round pick. The fallers are often still very good prospects for their organization, but their development stalled or a flaw revealed itself that pushes their timeline back. #1 Anaheim Ducks
Top 4 Prospects: Nazem Kadri C, Louis Leblanc C, Luke Adam LW, Zach Bogosian D Riser: Jon Merrill D – steal in the second round last year proved why many scouting organizations had him as a mid to late first rounder last year. Faller: Angelo Esposito C – finally healthy but former first rounder sitting in press box too often at AHL level. Strengths: Tough to pick top four on this team because many contenders. Excellent depth up front and very strong crop of D. Needs: Goalie prospects are average at best at this point. This year’s draft: 5 picks in first three rounds should build on already strong group. Current situation: Despite being one of the oldest teams in the NsHL some of their top performers, such as Getzlaf, Semin, Goligoski, and Whitney are in their mid-20s. Their crop of youngsters should be ready to step in by the time older players, such as Marchant and Kovalev step aside. Mr. Kopsack should continue to enjoy his run of consecutive playoff appearances for some time. #2 Nashville Predators
Top 4 Prospects: Ryan Johansen C, Nino Niederreiter LW, Ryan Stoa C, James Reimer G Riser: Steven Kampfer D – fourth rounder spent half season in Boston (NHL) due to hockey smarts and smooth transition to pro game. Faller: Gleason Fournier D – still lots of potential, but still way to easy to separate from the puck. Strengths: Very deep down the middle and on left wing, solid crop of defensemen coming. Needs: Has no legitimate prospects on the right wing. The addition of Reimer in net was massive, but could still use a secondary plan. This year’s draft: After masterful job of adding Johanson, Niederreiter and Nick Bjugstad C at last year’s draft, opted to trade away all draft picks for this year. Risky move, though it did land Reimer and Stoa, and there is a lot to work with here. Current situation: Tied with Boston and Colorado for the 5th-7th youngest teams in the league. With most of their current players signed they are in no real rush to bring players along, although many of the moves during the season should help to accelerate Mr. Miller’s plans. Overall, this is a young team with a healthy crop of players due to make a big impact in a couple of years, but will likely struggle for at least one more year. #3 San Jose Sharks
Top 4 Prospects: Jacob Markstrom G, Mikael Granlund C, Jeff Skinner LW, Jordan Eberle RW Riser: Marco Scandella D – was making a smooth transition to NHL before concussion. Faller: Tommy Cross D – developing well in most areas, but his foot speed remains a concern and he was slowed by a knee injury last year. Strengths: At least one top-rated or elite-calibre prospect at every position (Eberle and Skinner received high ratings by HF, but due to their NHL status were not included in the top 50 rankings, where they would arguably have found themselves in the top 10). Needs: Additional depth on the wings to back up Skinner and Eberle. This year’s draft: With two first rounders, including their top 3 pick (likely 2nd) they should have little be able to add another exceptional player and possibly vault past Nashville in the rankings. Current situation: A very young club with Eberle and Skinner, who are both under 21, already contributing. More dynamic players coming down the pipes leaves San Jose very healthy, but still seeming to be in a rebuild mode. Probably a couple of years away from excellence, but some nice drafting, especially last season, has left Mr. Fulmore with the pieces to get there. #4 Los Angeles Kings
Top 4 Prospects: Jeremy Morin LW, Andrei Loktionov C, Beau Bennett RW, Mattias Tedenby LW Riser: Tomas Kubalik RW was one of the top rookie scorers in the AHL this past season. Faller: Evgeny Grachev LW has struggled to score at the AHL level. Strengths: Good depth at all forward positions. Needs: Top end defenseman to bolster solid group. Additional top-end goalie prospect to replace departed James Reimer in case their other goalies do not emerge as expected. This year’s draft: Two late first rounders and a second rounder could also find them passing Nashville in the prospect rankings by filling needs or adding to already strong depth. Current situation : The sixth oldest club in the league, with several key players over thirty, although younger players like Jiri Hudler and Keith Yandle are already playing well. Many of their top prospects are a couple of years away, so they will need the veterans to keep producing for a little while longer until the cavalry arrives, but Mr. N. Kopsack has built a very deep set of prospects to work with. #5 Columbus Blue Jackets
Top 4 Prospects: Magnus Paajarvi LW, Tim Erixon D, Jacob Josefson C, Jared Tinordi D Riser: Christian Thomas RW – with 54 goals in the OHL he is proving that size may not be an issue. Faller: Bobby Sanguinetti D – has struggled mightily with the pace in the NHL. Strengths: At least one very strong prospect at all three forward positions, and a good crop of blueliners who bring different dimensions. Needs: A top end goalie, especially given the health problems of Jonas Gustavsson. This year’s draft: Two first rounders (one of which will be at least 4th overall) and a second rounder will help to build depth or add that missing goalie. Current situation: Rumor has it that Mr. Stack spends more on diaper cream than razors for the second youngest club in the league. With only 2 30 year olds and on 36 year old, this is a club that should grow together. While the club had a poor season, there are some high quality players who will be ready soon, and the current active youngsters represent reason for optimism. #6 Colorado Avalanche
Top 4 Prospects: Brayden Schenn C, Emerson Etem LW, Derek Forbort D, Brett MacLean LW Riser: Joe Cannatta G – outstanding season garnered some consideration for a Hobey Baker nomination. Faller: Chad Wideman D – strength remains a stumbling block in his development. Strengths: Having Brayden Schenn gives the club an outstanding prospect to build their club around. Good crop of forwards to work with. Needs: Beyond Forbort their defence prospects are decent, there is a lack of right wingers, their goalies are solid but are more of the long-shot variety. This year’s draft: Holding a first, three seconds, and two thirds should help to build depth and shore up weakness areas, which could help them creep past Columbus in the rankings. Current situation: Colorado sits in good shape with a roster in the 27 year old range. They have several solid youngsters, but may lose key free agent Chris Pronger on the blueline to free agency. The loss of his contract will allow for lots of flexibility if they want to add some veterans while they wait for budding stars like Schenn and Etem to emerge. Mr. King is new to the job, so what he will do in the off-season is a mystery to us all. #7 Dallas Stars
Top 4 Prospects: Zach Kassian RW, Joe Colborne C, Michal Neuwirth G, Joacim Eriksson G Riser: Erik Condra RW – made the most of tryout on weak NHL Senators team. Faller: Charles-Olivier Roussel – had a tough year on a weak team. Strengths: Lots of depth in all areas, especially in goal. Needs: More top end talent. While there is a lot of depth, many players project to be good role players or third liners. This year’s draft: Dallas has all of their picks, so they should be able to add to their solid set of prospects, but adding that game-breaker when you pick in the late 20s will be tough. Current situation: Last offseason GM Dan McMullen pulled off a blockbuster adding Joe Thornton and Zdeno Chara, who are still in their early thirties and are surrounded by a good supporting cast. There are lots of RFAs to deal with, and winger Mike York is almost certain to depart. This club is in good shape right now, and has some nice depth coming along to fill in the gaps in the next few years. #8 Minnesota Wild
Top 4 Prospects: Patrice Cormier C, Jakob Silfverberg RW, Mike Weber D, Kevin Hayes LW Riser: Taylor Beck LW – power forward improves by leaps and bounds each year, and should probably be listed in the top 4 prospects. Faller: Brett Sonne C – former OHL scoring star struggling to produce in AHL, but provides good energy. Strengths: Lots of depth in all skating areas. Needs: Another strong goalie in case Mikko Koskinen does not develop as expected, some more top-end prospects. This year’s draft: Brother, can you spare a pick? With just one third rounder and two late picks there will be little opportunity to build on their depth without making a move. Current situation: The should have little problem dealing with the loss of Danny Markov as a UFA, and this is another club in their late 20s with a solid line-up. Their top prospects are still a couple of years away, but as a relatively young team they should be in good shape. Their lack of picks may complicate things in four to five years, but there is time to rectify the problem and Mr. Maughn has already established himself as a wheeler-dealer who will be active in correcting any deficiencies. #9 Detroit Red Wings
Top 4 Prospects: Tyler Ennis C, Anton Lander C, Mark Pysyk D, Calvin DeHaan D Riser: Justin Schultz D – was the NCAA defenseman of the year and top scoring college defenseman in the country. Faller: Perttu Lindgren C – was average in the AHL, but has improved since returning to Finland. Strengths: Center and defense are relatively deep and have some very strong candidates. Needs: Prospects at both wings and in net. This year’s draft: A first and a second rounder will help fill some needs, but there will still be some work to do afterwards. Current situation: At just over an average age of 30 years old, and having one of the highest salaries, the Red Wings may be due for some changes. With 9 RFAs and 2 UFAs on the current roster, something just may give sooner than later. Detroit has some nice pieces that are a year or two away, so they may need to look to making a deal or two to reduce salary and tide them over until the youngsters can step in. However, Mr. Bonkosky is more likely looking at a small step back not a free fall in the standings with good young players like Tomas Fleischmann, James Howard, and Marc Staal on the roster. #10 Phoenix Coyotes
Top 4 Prospects: Scott Glennie RW, Mark Visentin G, Drayson Bowman LW, John Carlson D Riser: Joel Chouinard D – was slowed by a broken collarbone, but showed that he can really make tinhgs happen at the AHL level. Faller: Joe Vitale C – was downgraded by HF, but played 9 solid games for NHL Penguins. Strengths: Hardest team to find a faller as all prospects appear to be making steady progress according to HF and THN, good depth at wing, defence, and goal. Needs: Depth and higher end talent at center ice. This year’s draft: Will pick first or second, which will allow them to add a star talent at forward or defence, and second and third rounders will allow them to improve depth. This should vault them past Detroit and Calgary. Current situation: Mr. Raines has worked hard to fix the AsHL club, but the NsHL club now needs some TLC. Luckily, the top players on the club, such as Anze Kopitar, Brad Richardson, and Anton Volchenkov are in their early-to-mid 20s and there are some good youngsters like John Carlson who are close to making an impact. Phoenix still looks like a work-in-progress, and if that’s the case they may need to add a strong goalie who can weather the storm instead of the journeyman combo of Dave LeNeveu and Josh Tjordman who finished out the year. #11 Calgary Flames
Top 4 Prospects: Logan Couture C, Brad Ross LW, Spencer Machacek RW, Keith Aulie D Riser: Linden Vey RW – 46 goals in WHL regular season, followed by 12 goals in 15 playoff games showing tremendous scoring touch when it matters. Faller: Ben Hanowski LW – his lack of physicality has hurt his development. Strengths: Very good depth at center, and solid depth at right wing and defense. Needs: Additional prospects on the left wing and, sorry, but Dustin Tokarski as your best goalie prospect does not bode well. This year’s draft: A second and three third round picks should help to add some solid prospects, but the lack of a first hurts. Current situation: Calgary went through a mini-rebuild by bringing in several younger players two seasons ago, but their roster is still over 29 years old. There are few free agents to deal with, and with key players such as Carey Price, Dmitriy Kulikov, and Jeff Carter 25 years old or younger, this club has a nice balance of young and old. They may have to replace Ed Jovanovski (UFA) this offseason, but Mr. Drummond has some depth on the blueline currently on the roster and in the system to deal with his loss. #12 Edmonton Oilers
Top 4 Prospects: Alexander Burmistrov C, Zac Dalpe RW, Colin Wilson C, Oscar Osala LW Riser: David Schlemko D – continues to impress by being good in all areas of the ice at every level where he plays. Faller: Taylor Chorney D – proving to be way too one-dimensional. Strengths: Good depth at all forward positions. Needs: To build depth at defense and in net, though the latter is less pressing due to the presence of Tuukka Rask. This year’s draft: With a pick in the top 6 (likely 5th) they should be able to add a high quality prospect. The lack of a second rounder hurts, and their third rounders are not their own, meaning they are later than they would hope, but there is opportunity to add depth. Current situation: This is a fairly young club with a handful of RFAs. Young players such as Tuukka Rask, Drew Doughty, David Booth are good core players to build around. The Western Conference is very tough and Edmonton will have to be patient with their youngsters for future success. #13 Chicago Blackhawks
Top 4 Prospects: Jaden Schwartz C, Brett Connolly C/RW, Jake Gardiner D, Sergei Varlarmov G Riser: Caleb Herbert RW – former high school phenom had an excellent USHL season. Faller: Nick Ross D – former first rounder is still dogged by questions about desire. Strengths: Last year’s draft brought them two legitimate top-end forward prospects, and Mark MacMillan and Herbert give them some depth up front. Needs: After activating all their young goalies, none remain on the prospect list, though their main need is depth in all areas, especially the wings. This year’s draft: Picking in the first half of the first round should bring them a solid prospect, and they can build on depth with their other seven picks. They are playing catch-up after missing the 2009 draft altogether after moving their picks. Current situation: Chicago has been working hard to shed salary and get younger as their financial situation was bordering on desperate. With JS Giguere and his $6 million contract set to depart and young goalies Corey Crawford and Semyon Varlarmov set to take over, and a good group of players in the mid 20s including Andrew Ladd, Corey Perry, Duncan Keith, and Ryan Callahan the Blackhawks have time to restock their shelves and remain competitive, but while they have a few top prospects, there is virtually no room for error. #14 Vancouver Canucks
Top 4 Prospects: Cody Eakin C, Marcus Foligno LW, Benn Ferriero RW, Jesse Blacker D Riser: Nick Johnson RW - opinions on his upside have fluctuated from depth winger to power forward. He did not look out of place in 4 game call-up to NHL and tallied three points in four games. Faller: Thomas McCollum G played his way down to the ECHL this past season. Strengths: Having a good prospect in each of the forward positions and at defence shows good balance, and right wing and center have some additional depth. Needs: Depth and more top end talent, especially at left wing, defence, and in goal. This year’s draft: While it will hurt their quest for another top-end player by not drafting in the first round, they have two second and three third rounders to add to their overall depth. Current situation: With a roster that is over 29 years old, the Canucks may be looking to get younger. UFAs Daymond Langkow and Jon Sim are likely to depart, which should create some opportunity to add youth. Their key players, the Sedins are just 30, and their goaltending tandem of Pekka Rinne and Rick DiPietro are 28 and 29 respectively, and Andrew Cogliano is just 23, but beyond that their top players are well into their 30s. The Canucks have time to get younger, but this should be a very different line-up in the next couple of years. #15 St. Louis Blues
Top 4 Prospects: Brandon Burlon D, Radko Gudas D, Mathieu Perreault C, Viktor Tikhonov RW Riser: Nick Crawford D – Buried behind a solid crop of defensemen in the NHL Sabres system, he performed very well while taking on extra minutes after the injury bug hit his AHL club. Faller: Casey Borer D – It’s hard to pile on a guy who looked like a sure-fire NHLer a few years ago, but a knee injury and broken neck from a bus crash set his development way back. The good news is he is starting to show signs of recovery, but whether it will be enough remains a question mark. Strengths: Reasonable depth at center, defence, and goal. Needs: Some high end prospects, and depth on both wings. This year’s draft: No first or second rounder means that St. Louis will need to get creative to start building up their prospect pool for when the inevitable downturn comes. Current situation: This was an outstanding team in the regular season, but this was largely due to a veteran presence that put their average age over 30. With good young players like Travis Zajac, Alex Edler, and David Backes there is no need to panic. The Blues have a number of UFAs likely to depart, including Adrian Aucoin, Brent Johnson, Jamal Mayers, Jerred Smithson, and Mike Modano, so the Blues may need to rely on free agency to fill the needs as few of their prospects are NsHL-ready. - Aristotle Newton of BuytheNumber$ for ESN and Sachermetrics
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